2010 Analysis

Team Average Ranking #1 Rankings Highest Ranking Lowest Ranking Standard Deviation Boosters (Top Ranked By) Commentary
The Favourites
Spain2.67151102.22Amhlaoibh, Brent, BrianH, BrianK, Gaurav, Jason, JonPe, JonR, Kirk, Kiva, Marius, Paul, Rob, Ross, TrevorSpain are the relatively heavy favourites, so many will be disappointed if they don't make it to the final match...
Brazil3.1510192.22Aaron, Benjy, BrianD, Gurveen, Jeff, Mark, Naveed, Scott, VictorOf course the #1 ranked team in the world is going to be a favourite, especially since they've won more World Cups than any other country...judging solely by pool entries, one would think a Spain-Brazil final is almost pre-ordained...
The Dark Horses
Argentina4.3651102.69Amanda, George, Kieran, KoiAlmost a favourite but clearly below Spain and Brazil, Maradona's Argentina side will pose a threat...
Netherlands4.9531203.28Chris, JonPo, TrevorOften in the mix but never having won, this could be the Oranje's year...
England5.3831193.44Damian, Justin, PeterEngland would appear to have a relatively easy run to the quarter-finals, but with the highest standard deviation among the top teams, there appears to be a fair bit of disagreement on how much farther can they go...
Germany5.9521173.36Erin, RobEveryone expects the Germans to come out of group D, but there's a fair bit of disagreement on how they'll fare thereafter...
Italy6.2311101.81Suzanne (followed by Aaron & Ross at 3)Remarkably, Italy has the lowest standard deviation, lower even than the teams at the top and bottom extremes, with most entries placing the defending champions in the quarter-finals but generally no further, perhaps because they would be likely to face Spain in the quarters...
The Longshots
Portugal8.8202183.07Mark (followed by Aaron & Erin at 4)Although currently ranked third in the world, Portugal are in group G with Brazil, and could well face Spain just to get to the quarters, so many have them ranked firmly in the second quartile...
France9.6902174.43Justin (followed by Rob at 3)There are many differing opinions on how well Les Bleus will fare in a difficult-to-judge group A...
United States11.5904192.88Jeff (followed by Trevor at 6)Many may be cheering against the US, but there seems to be quite a bit of consensus that they will come out of group C only to be eliminated by Germany prior to the quarters...
Mexico12.2803234.42Jeff (followed by BrianD at 6)Mexico are ranked highly by a few entries, but others don't even have them coming out of group A...
Chile14.5107324.97Trevor (followed by Brent & Rob at 9)Given that they presumably have to beat either Spain or Brazil to get to the quarters, Chile don't have many high rankings, but most do figure them to make it out of group H...
Serbia15.2603284.91Erin (followed by Marius at 6)Serbia has a couple of extreme backers and detractors, but most entries are actually hedging with them right near the middle...
Paraguay16.33010254.18Amanda, JasonWith an average as close to the middle as possible and a remarkably narrow range and relatively low standard deviation, Paraguay seems to be the ultimate hedge team...
Cameroon16.8204315.69Naveed (followed by JonR & Kirk at 10)There is little consensus on all of the African teams, but Cameroon managed the highest average ranking among them, while also having the widest spread of rankings of any team, African or otherwise...
The Faint Hopes
Nigeria18.0504296.59Jeff (followed by Naveed & Victor at 7)With the largest standard deviation and one of the wider spreads of rankings, Nigeria will definitely be a difference-maker in the pool, no matter how things turn out for them...
Denmark18.2307275.46Jeff, JustinThe Danes tend to be around the middle of most rankings, as they impressed with their qualifying run, but are generally not considered a serious contender to go deep...
Uruguay18.4406305.73Amhlaoibh (followed by Jason & Jeff at 8)Uruguay has one of the wider spreads, with little consensus emerging on group A...
Greece18.5908295.24Trevor (followed by Koi at 10)The Greeks have been ranked around the middle by most pool entries...
Ivory Coast19.2108305.77Damian, Kiva, PeterWill Drogba play or won't he, is one of the great questions of this World Cup, and with the fourth-highest standard deviation, it appears many are betting for or against the Elephants...
Ghana20.4904306.16BrianK (followed by JonR at 7)The question of how Ghana will fare without Michael Essien has been answered many different ways by pool entries...
Slovakia21.10010305.12JonPo (followed by Kirk & Victor at 11)Making their World Cup debut (not including the Czechoslovakia years) the Slovaks are something of an unknown quantity...
Australia21.23011294.65Kieran (followed by Paul at 12)The Socceroos did well at the last World Cup, exceeding expectations, but not too many picked them to come out of group D, and those who did hedged with them in the teens...
Switzerland21.62015314.10Justin, Koi, Rob, VictorThe Swiss are fairly tightly clustered around the third quartile of most entries, as there seems to be a remarkable degree of consensus on how group H will shake out...
South Africa22.8709326.56Amanda (followed by Aaron at 10)With the second-lowest world ranking (ahead of only North Korea) I doubt that anyone thinks they're a great team, but with the second-highest standard deviation, there appears to be a great deal of disagreement on how much of a role the home advantage will play...
Slovenia23.87016313.83BrianD, MarkSlovenia gets some respect for beating out Russia to qualify, but is generally not expected to make it past England and USA to make it out of group C...
South Korea23.97011304.73JonPe (followed by Justin & Suzanne at 14)Most don't expect the South Koreans to make it out of group B...
Algeria26.59011324.11Rob (followed by himself at 19)Aside from Rob's two top-20 rankings, few have any real faith in the Algerians...
Japan26.95016323.44Peter (followed by Paul at 18)Japan has yet to win a World Cup match away from home soil...
Honduras27.95016323.80Rob (followed by Kieran at 21)Honduras is just happy to make it to South Africa, so few expect them to make much noise there...
New Zealand30.26024322.38Rob (followed by Justin & Peter at 25)The All-Whites have been compared to Canada in 1986, as a team who may not score a goal...
North Korea30.59022322.27Peter (followed by Gurveen at 23)Not even ranked in the top 100 in the world, and in what many consider to be this year's Group of Death, the team from the enigmatic cult of personality are a consensus pick for the bottom, but the history lesson of their one previous World Cup appearance in 1966 when they made the final eight puts a seed of doubt in some minds...

With the four highest standard deviations, the pool for Africa's World Cup will largely be determined by Africa's teams, although it seems very likely that the Cup winner will actually be from either Europe or South America...