2013 Analysis

Team Average Ranking #1 Rankings Highest Ranking Lowest Ranking Standard Deviation Commentary
The Favourites
Pittsburgh Penguins2.41241112.01For the second straight year the Penguins get the highest average ranking, despite not winning the President's Trophy and big question marks around Sidney Crosby...
Chicago Blackhawks2.52251112.14After a very impressive (albeit shortened) season, the Hawks edge out the Penguins for the most #1 rankings, but can't match their overall average...
The Dark Horses
Boston Bruins6.1411152.84I was quite surprised to see the Bruins third on this list, particularly because they're only the fourth seed in the east, but I guess the fact they won just two years ago and aren't a substantially different team (plus the fact that they came within one point of the claiming the #2 seed in the east) gives them plenty of credibility...more than half of the entries have them ranked either 3, 4, or 5...
Anaheim Ducks6.2311143.45Finishing third overall in the league and being the #2 seed in the west pays off for the Ducks with the fourth-highest average ranking, and the highest lowest ranking aside from the Hawks and Pens...
Los Angeles Kings7.1521163.59The defending champs only ranked fifth in the west, but they still managed fifth overall in the pool to become the only consensus predicted upset...
Vancouver Canucks7.2341153.61The Canucks seem to have gotten a bigger homer bounce than the Leafs, including the third-largest number of #1 rankings...
Montreal Canadiens7.4821153.52The Habs looked vulnerable late in the season, which probably accounts for their relatively low placement here, but they did manage to capture second place in the east, and do have a long and storied history of overperforming in the post-season...
Washington Capitals7.5911153.49The Capitals came within just a couple of games of missing the playoffs, but did pick up the third seed in the east, giving them a narrow edge on the Rangers in the first round, but only eight entries have them going any farther than that...
The Longshots
New York Rangers9.0931164.02The Rangers have the highest standard deviation this year (perhaps partially because they have the fourth-largest number of #1 rankings) suggesting that their fate will likely be integral to the outcome of the pool...
San Jose Sharks9.5911163.15The Sharks are again underdogs this year, but only finished the season with two fewer points than their first-round opponent Canucks...
St. Louis Blues9.8511163.22The Blues came on strong to capture the fourth seed, but with just one more point than the Kings and their relative history of playoff underperformance compared with the Kings winning it all last year, they come out on the bottom of that series in most entries...
Ottawa Senators10.2002153.49Similar to last year, the Senators started the season well yet almost backed their way out of the playoffs, but with key players returning in time for the playoffs, and of course some homer bias, their pool ranking exceeds their seeding...
Detroit Red Wings10.3304163.26The Wings narrowly fought their way into the playoffs at the end of a lukewarm season, but don't get a whole lot of respect despite their stable roster and post-season history and experience...
Toronto Maple Leafs10.6211163.72As surprised as I was to see the Bruins third overall, I was even more surprised to see the Leafs third-last...usually enough Leaf fans enter to skew them higher, but apparently this year only six entries see them winning anything more than their first round series, and only Amanda was true blue and brave enough to rank them #1...
The Faint Hopes
New York Islanders14.7607161.76Facing the pool-favourite Penguins in the first round, the Islanders nearly match the Wild for the lowest average ranking, but with the lowest standard deviation and no ranking above 7, there's even more consensus that they won't pick up many wins, and even if they do manage to get past the Pens, there's no faith they can go any farther...
Minnesota Wild14.8204162.27The Wild face the top team in the league, and consequently end up with the lowest average ranking...the lowest in pool history, in fact...

Normally I have to agonize over where to place the splits between categories, but this year there are very clear gaps in the average rankings, making that part of the job simple...