2008 Analysis

Team	Average Ranking	Highest Ranking	Lowest Ranking	Standard Deviation	Commentary
The Favourites
Montreal Canadiens	3.00	1	8	1.86	Although more entries picked San Jose to win the Cup, Montreal averaged a higher ranking, for status as the favourite overall...they haven't won yet this decade, so they are due...
San Jose Sharks	3.21	1	13	3.02	With the most #1 rankings and yet a standard deviation higher than 3, it's clear that the fate of several entries rests heavily on the fate of the Sharks...
Detroit Red Wings	3.38	1	8	1.74	Despite winning the President's Trophy for the fourth time in the last six seasons (and winning the Cup one of those three previous times) the Wings have only the third-highest average ranking...
The Dark Horses
Pittsburgh Penguins	4.76	1	11	2.61	The consensus seems to be that the Penguins will do well but are not quite ready for prime time just yet...
Anaheim Ducks	5.12	1	16	3.04	The defending champs received rankings all the way along the spectrum, the only team other than last year's other finalist (the Senators) to have that distinction this year...
The Longshots
Washington Capitals	7.21	3	14	2.74	The Caps finished the season on a tear, but just barely qualified for the playoffs, so it's not too surprising that feelings on their prospects are mixed...
New York Rangers	7.97	1	14	3.27	Despite being the lower seed, the Rangers appear to be favoured over the Devils in their opening round series by entrants in this pool...
New Jersey Devils	8.21	1	15	3.56	With the largest standard deviation (and with their first-round Ranger opponents having the third-largest) there appears to be little consensus on this year's Devils, and this first-round series will have a significant impact on the standings...
Colorado Avalanche	8.76	2	16	3.13	Another lower seed favoured in the pool to beat the higher seed, Colorado may be pivotal in deciding the pool outcome as well...
Minnesota Wild	9.38	5	15	2.75	Even those who picked the Wild over the Avalanche in the first round have them going no further than that...
The Faint Hopes
Dallas Stars	10.97	5	16	2.81	Despite being hot mid-season and making a couple of key trade-deadline deals, the Stars folded down the stretch, so nobody credits them with anything more than a first-round victory over the Ducks...
Philadelphia Flyers	11.18	6	15	2.68	Speaking for myself, I found the Flyers an unknown quantity and one of the hardest teams to rank, so perhaps it's not surprising that so many entries hedged on the Flyers with rankings around the third quartile...
Calgary Flames	11.56	4	15	2.79	Kipper and Iggy and company have a history of overachieving in the playoffs, but they come in this year as a seventh seed facing an uphill battle against the Sharks in the first round, so they have plenty of low rankings...
Ottawa Senators	11.94	1	16	3.36	Which Sens will show up in the playoffs...the ones who started the season 15-2, or the ones who limped to a seventh-place finish in the east? There appears to be little consensus, with the second-largest standard deviation, and a range of rankings all along the spectrum...
Boston Bruins	14.56	7	16	2.05	At least the Bruins were given one top-half ranking, although even that entry has the Habs ranked higher, so the Bruins are unanimously expected to lose to the Habs...
Nashville Predators	14.79	11	16	1.32	With the smallest standard deviation and no ranking higher than 11, it appears that everyone agrees that the Predators don't have much chance, with no one giving them anything more than a couple of games against the Wings...

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Winning Probabilities

Now that I have a new laptop with substantially more horsepower than my old one, I did an analysis of the possible outcomes as of the end of the first round (the quantity of outcomes prior to that point is still too much for my hardware to calculate...maybe in a few years I'll be able to keep track right from that start of the pool) and found that there were 18,874,368 possible outcomes, and ten people who still had a chance of winning. To my chagrin and surprise I was not among them, even though I was the only one to pick Pittsburgh to win the Cup...more impetus for me to contemplate revising the scoring formula after this year. :-)

The statistical caveats are that I only calculated the first four tiebreakers, so there is some small margin for error, and of course the percentage chance assumes that all outcomes have equal probability, which is obviously inherently false. I'll likely also update this analysis at a few later points in the playoffs, such as perhaps the end of each round...

I wasn't surprised that Kirk had the most winning combinations, but I was surprised just how heavily favoured he was. If you made the list, good for you and good luck the rest of the way, and if you didn't, sorry, better luck next year...

After first round

Name	Winning Combinations	Percentage Chance	Commentary
Kirk	11,747,076	62.24	With the current lead and all eight of his top teams left, including the highest rankings (among remaining contenders) of SJ, Phi, and Pit, it's clearly Kirk's pool to lose at this point...
Grady	1,942,464	10.29	In second place and with seven of his top eight teams still around, it's no surprise that Grady is second on this list, but the size of the gap did surprise me, although it makes a bit more sense when you see that his two lowest-ranked remaining teams (Mon & Phi) meet each other this round...
Roel	1,906,900	10.10	Sitting down in seventh place, it surprised me that Roel's odds were this good, and it appears that if the Rangers manage to beat the Penguins, he'll be a strong contender...
Scott	1,631,152	8.64	Scott has his top five teams left, including the highest rankings of SJ and Dal, but weaker rankings of NYR, Col, and Phi, so if the four conference finalists are all among his top five teams, he'll be in very good shape...
RobH	840,492	4.45	With his top five teams intact and seven of his top eight, you might think Rob would be in better shape, but with little to differentiate him from the five entries ahead of him, and a low ranking of the Stars, he doesn't have much room for error...
Jason	362,388	1.92	A Sharks-Rangers final would be Jason's best scenario, but there are other possibilities that could still give him a win...
Justin	245,492	1.30	With by far the lowest SJ ranking (among remaining contenders) Justin needs the Stars to take the Sharks out, preferably in a short series, and then needs the Stars to bow out quickly in the conference finals...
Erin	115,752	0.61	Despite sitting in 19th place after the first round (the next-lowest still in contention is Mike in 12th) last year's runner-up has six of her top seven teams left, including strong contrarian rankings of the Rangers, Wings, and Flyers, but low Stars and Penguins rankings could hurt her...
Darby	51,436	0.27	In the flipside of his sister's situation, despite sitting in fourth place, Darby's chances are slim, with him absolutely needing a Montreal-Detroit final, among other conditions...
Mike	31,216	0.17	Mike is hanging on by a thread, needing the Rangers in the finals against either the Sharks or the Avalanche, along with other conditions...