2014 Analysis

Team Average Ranking #1 Rankings Highest Ranking Lowest Ranking Standard Deviation Commentary
The Favourites
Boston Bruins2.76241163.26The Bruins are in a class by themselves this year, sitting atop more than half of all entries, giving them an average ranking almost two notches higher than any other team...
The Dark Horses
Pittsburgh Penguins4.5821142.73The Penguins' superstar roster and post-season pedigree manage to get them the second-highest average ranking...
Anaheim Ducks5.3611132.53Despite finishing second in the league and first in the west, the Ducks only garner the third-highest ranking and a single #1 ranking...
Chicago Blackhawks5.6031133.71The defending champs are relegated to fourth overall, although given that they were third in their division, perhaps that's actually over-achieving...
The Longshots
Colorado Avalanche6.6721142.65The Avalanche have the third-lowest standard deviation, despite an average ranking near the middle, suggesting that they may not have a huge impact on the outcome of the pool...
Los Angeles Kings6.6721163.80The Kings don't seem substantially different from the team that won two years ago and made the conference final last year, so they definitely have some supporters, but as a third seed facing an impressive Sharks team they have some detractors too...with the third-highest standard deviation (and the Sharks with the second-highest) this series may be the most important of the first round...
St. Louis Blues7.7121154.36The Blues have the highest standard deviation this year (in fact, the highest in the history of the pool) meaning their fate will have a very significant effect on the standings...
Montreal Canadiens7.8031163.63The Habs are the only Canadian team in the playoffs this year, which I would have expected to help them place a bit higher on this list, but they do garner three #1 rankings and a top-half average ranking, despite being the lower seed in the first round...
San Jose Sharks7.9631153.87The Sharks have a well-earned reputation for choking in the post-season, so perhaps it's not a surprise that despite winning the higher seed, they rank below their first-round opponent Kings...
New York Rangers8.6021153.54The Rangers rank above the Flyers, meaning most think they'll win the first-round series, but with the unusual circumstance of both being in the bottom half, it appears several people seem to think it doesn't matter who wins that series because neither team can go any further...
The Faint Hopes
Philadelphia Flyers9.8702163.42The Flyers are the only non-wild-card team not to be picked by anyone to win the Cup, but still manage to rank above the Lightning...
Tampa Bay Lightning10.0211163.33Without Bishop and St. Louis, it appears few have confidence in the Lightning's chances...perhaps there's a bit of a homer bias here too, given that they face the only Canadian team in the playoffs in the first round...
Detroit Red Wings11.4702163.51The Wings face the President's Trophy winners in the first round, but thanks to key injuries and a storied post-season history, they get the most respect out of the wild card teams...
Minnesota Wild13.0207162.78The Wild only have the third-lowest average ranking, but the last lowest ranking, suggesting that few think they'll get past the Avalanche, but quite a few hedged with them in the upper part of their bottom eight...
Dallas Stars13.4006162.47The lowest standard deviation indicates that there is a great deal of consensus that Dallas is not going far...
Columbus Blue Jackets14.5303162.63Once again the Penguins first-round opponent languishes extremely low in the rankings...with no history of playoff victories (having been swept in their only previous post-season series) and having been swept 5-0 in the season series with the Penguins, perhaps it shouldn't come as a surprise...

A fairly balanced distribution this year (Boston aside) with eleven different teams picked to win the Cup...I find it interesting that the top two teams are in the east, especially since there is wide consensus that the west is the stronger conference...presumably it's because there's greater consensus on which teams in the east are stronger though, since 3-6 are all western teams...