2017 Analysis

Team

Average Ranking

#1 Rankings

Highest Ranking

Lowest Ranking

Standard Deviation

Commentary

The Favourites

Golden State Warriors

1.75

5

1

4

1.16

The Warriors are the heavy favourite, ranked atop a majority of entries...

San Antonio Spurs

2.62

1

1

3

0.74

The Spurs are the clear alternative western pick, ranked higher on average than any eastern team...

Cleveland Cavaliers

2.88

1

1

5

1.55

The defending champions only manage the third-highest average ranking, and only one pick for them to repeat...

The Dark Horses

Boston Celtics

4.25

0

3

7

1.16

Despite finishing first in the east, nobody even picked the Celtics to make the finals...

Toronto Raptors

4.88

1

1

5

2.70

Unsurprisingly, the Raptors get a higher ranking than their seed would suggest, including one pick for them to go all the way, and with the second-highest standard deviation, they’ll likely impact the pool’s outcome...

Houston Rockets

5.88

0

5

7

0.83

The Rockets have the third-lowest standard deviation, implying a great deal of consensus that they’ll win the first round, but lose thereafter...

The Longshots

Washington Wizards

7.50

0

5

14

3.12

The Wizards have the highest standard deviation, and the widest range of rankings, meaning they’ll be a difference-maker in the pool, no matter how they fare...

Los Angeles Clippers

8.12

0

5

10

1.55

There’s disagreement over whether the Clippers can win in the first round, but with a relatively narrow range and small standard deviation, there's definitely some hedging going on across the board...

The Faint Hopes

Utah Jazz

10.00

0

8

15

2.51

The Jazz return to the playoffs, and five out of eight entries have them in either the 8 or 9 spot...

Oklahoma City Thunder

10.12

0

6

13

2.10

Despite last year’s strong performance, only one entry has them getting out of the first round...

Atlanta Hawks

10.25

0

8

14

2.12

Even the two entries that have the Hawks getting past the Wizards only have them ranked #8...

Milwaukee Bucks

11.88

0

10

14

1.25

The Bucks appear to be a third quartile hedge, with a narrow range and low standard deviation...

Chicago Bulls

12.00

0

10

13

1.31

The Bulls also appear to be a third quartile hedge, with a narrow range and low standard deviation...

Indiana Pacers

14.12

0

11

16

1.64

The Pacers face an uphill battle in the first round against the defending champs, so the low ranking isn’t too surprising...

Memphis Grizzlies

14.50

0

13

15

0.76

With the second-lowest standard deviation  it seems there is a great deal of consensus the Grizzlies aren’t going anywhere...

Portland Trail Blazers

15.25

0

11

16

1.75

The Blazers are dead last in six out of eight entries, an unprecedented vote of non-confidence...


A lot of consensus, which is perhaps not too surprising especially with a small number of entries, but it looks like a few teams will matter a lot: Washington, Toronto, Utah, Atlanta, and Oklahoma City...